After a recent wave of “four consecutive rises”, is the oil price finally going to drop?
At 24:00 on June 28, a new round of refined oil price adjustment window will open. The agency predicts that this round of refined oil prices will show a “dramatic drop”, ushering in the second reduction this year.
As of 14:00 on June 27, Beijing time, Brent crude oil futures for August were quoted at $113.23 per barrel. During this round of pricing cycle, international crude oil futures showed a downward trend of high volatility.
Analysts said that in the near term, investors are still worried that the Fed’s interest rate hike may push the U.S. economy into recession, thereby suppressing demand for fuel. In addition, the U.S. government’s attempt to combat high oil prices by cutting taxes and increasing production has also increased the downward pressure on crude oil futures, so international crude oil is trending downward at a high level. However, it is difficult for some oil-producing countries to increase production, and OPEC’s production recovery has always been slower than the planned target. Concerns about tight oil resources remain unabated.
Affected by the fluctuation of international crude oil prices, according to agency estimates, as of the ninth working day of June 27, the average price of crude oil varieties referenced by domestic oil prices was US$113.11 per barrel, with a rate of change of -5.49%. It is estimated that domestic gasoline , Diesel down to 330 yuan per ton, equivalent to 92 gasoline per liter down 0.26 yuan, diesel down 0.28 yuan per liter.
After the current round of oil price adjustments, No. 95 gasoline in some parts of the country is expected to leave the “10 yuan era” temporarily, and the price per liter will drop below 10 yuan. For consumers, this round of refined oil price adjustments may be regarded as short-term “good news”.
Since 2022, domestic refined oil products have shown a pattern of “ten rises and one fall” during the year. During the year, gasoline has increased by 2,720 yuan per ton, and diesel has increased by 2,620 yuan per ton. Equivalent to gasoline rose about 2.14 yuan per liter, diesel rose about 2.24 yuan per liter. For an ordinary private car with a fuel tank capacity of 50L, it will cost about 107 yuan more to fill up a tank of fuel than at the end of last year.
Analysts said that with the arrival of hot weather, the frequency of use of car air conditioners has increased, and the consumption of gasoline has increased, and demand is still supported. With the advent of the summer vacation, the travel radius of residents has increased, and the terminal consumption is still supported.
“There is no obvious trend signal in the crude oil market in the short term, so it is still the mainstream trend to maintain a wide range of shocks.” Analysts believe that the impact of market news on oil prices is temporary, and the final trend of crude oil prices remains unchanged. Will return to the impact of fundamentals. All parties in the market still have different opinions on the future of crude oil. The bulls believe that oil prices will hit a high of $150/barrel, while the bears believe that crude oil has turned into a bearish cycle.
