Internal and external trends: LME zinc continued to decline. As of 15:08 Beijing time, it was reported at US$2,975/ton, a daily drop of 0.35%. Shanghai Zinc’s main 2109 contract fluctuated and declined, with daily trading at 22,655-22,400 yuan/ton and closing at 22,420 yuan/ton in late trading, down 0.97% from the closing price of the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 120,000 lots, a daily decrease of 20,555 lots; The position is 61,000 hands, a daily decrease of 8,800 hands. Basis strengthened to 340 yuan/ton; Shanghai zinc price spread narrowed to 10 yuan/ton from September to October.
Market focus: (1) The Asian dollar index continued its upward trend. It is currently trading at 93.4, up 0.2% daily, setting a 9-month high. (2) The minutes of the Fed meeting showed that Taper was clearly discussed for the first time since the epidemic, implying actions within this year or raising the upper limit of overnight reverse repurchase.
Spot market: On August 19, the price of spot 0# zinc was 22710-22810 yuan/ton, and the average price was 100 yuan/ton lower than the previous trading day. Changjiang Nonferrous Metals reported that the quotations of holders were firm, long-term trading was basically over, downstream inquiries were slightly cautious, and there was just need to purchase, the market transaction performance was slightly lower than yesterday.
In terms of inventory: Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts were reported at 10,279 tons, a decrease of 802 tons from the previous trading day. As of August 18, the LME zinc warehouse reported 231,225 tons, a decrease of 875 tons compared with the previous trading day, and the 8th consecutive decline set a nearly 7-month low. At the same time, as of the week of August 13, the Shanghai zinc stocks on the Shanghai Futures Exchange reported 45,249 tons, a weekly increase of 5,267 tons, a two-week increase to the highest level in the past two months.
Main positions: The top 20 long positions of Shanghai Zinc’s main 2109 contract are 39,241 hands, 42870 short positions, 3,629 net short positions, a daily increase of 2550 hands, and the long position reduction is greater than the short position.
Market research and judgment: On August 19, Shanghai Zinc’s main 2109 contract fluctuated and fell, and the bulls lightened their positions. During the period, the macro atmosphere was relatively empty. The minutes of the Fed meeting released hawkish signals. The continued rise of the US dollar index put pressure on base metals. In the spot market, inventories in the two cities decreased outside and increased inside, and processing fees rose slightly from low levels. Holders’quotations were firm, long-term transactions were basically completed, downstream inquiries were slightly cautious, and they just needed to purchase. The market transaction performance was slightly lower than yesterday. Technically, the Shanghai zinc daily KDJ indicator crossed downward, and the hourly MACD green column expanded. In terms of operation, it is recommended that the main force of Shanghai Zinc can be backed up to 22475 yuan/ton to meet high altitudes, and the stop loss refers to 22530 yuan/ton.
