1. Price trend
Affected by the drought this month, Dangshen suddenly increased after experiencing low prices. The current price of codonopsis pilosula production area is between 40-43 yuan/kg, a 16.48% increase compared with the end of the previous month.
The market for codonopsis pilosula in the last two years is particularly extraordinary. Since the production of new products last year, the market of codonopsis pilosula has fallen to the bottom, and the price has officially entered the category of “low price”; as we all know, the characteristics of the market of codonopsis pilosula are “flammable and explosive”. As a result, many people see that Dangshen is at a low price, and the market cycle is almost time; when funds begin to intervene in a large amount of money, the market for Dangshen is also instantly ignited. Recently, the production area was hit by a drought again, and there was another buying boom, and the market continued to rise!
Bozhou market: Codonopsis pilosula recently went to the production area to purchase more and more merchants, the market is relatively hot, the increase is large, market operators have increased their reluctance to sell, and they have raised their asking prices. Strips are 55 yuan, and slices that pass a 0.3 sieve are around 60 yuan.
Anguo Market: Recently, many merchants have gone to the production area to buy goods. The supply of goods has been sold smoothly. The market performance is hot. The market performance is not as good as the production area. However, the market has risen accordingly. , The price of Xiaotongzhuangzui is around 55 yuan.
Yulin Market: codonopsis pilosula, the market is well digested, and the cost of incoming goods from the production area has risen, leading to rising prices. The current price of small strips is between 40-42 yuan, middle strips are 50-55 yuan, and large strips are around 90 yuan.
Minxian County, Gansu Province: Codonopsis pilosula has recently been paying more attention to the popularity, and the number of merchants looking for goods has increased, and the purchase and sale of the goods have been smooth. Affected by this, the price has risen compared with the previous period. The current price of the pharmaceutical factory is about 38 yuan, and its merchants are optimistic about the future. .
2. Analysis of influencing factors
Codonopsis pilosula production area suffers from drought
At present, some Codonopsis pilosula producing areas in Dingxi City, Gansu Province are affected by drought, and their growth is poor, and there are dead seedlings and lack of seedlings. However, the drought can be said to be an opportunity for the outbreak of the Dangshen market. The prerequisite for each major market situation is basically inseparable from drought. Only the uncertain natural factors such as drought are more likely to cause changes in the market for Codonopsis. After all, no one can predict the drastic reduction in production caused by drought.
The low prices in 2014 severely dampened the enthusiasm of codonopsis growers. The planting area plummeted. In addition to the severe drought in 2015, the production of codonopsis pilosula was reduced in 2015, and the market stabilized and stabilized, showing an upward trend.
In 2016, due to the continued reduction of seeds last year and the drought, the emergence rate of codonopsis pilosula was not high, the new output fell, the inventory was effectively digested, and the market rose.
In 2016, codonopsis pilosula was again driven by the positive news of drought. The high price of codonopsis pilosula continued, which made the enthusiasm of medical farmers to raise seedlings higher in 2017. In 2018, the enthusiasm of medical farmers in planting was not diminished, and the new price of production continued to decline.
The production area in 2020 is still not small. It is a year of bumper harvest for Codonopsis. In addition, in the first half of 2020, the epidemic has affected the sales of this product and the inventory has been backlogged, causing the market for Codonopsis to continue to weaken.
Gansu, as the main producing area, has always had the characteristics of “nine droughts in ten years”. This year, some areas of Gansu once again suffered from drought, coupled with the excessive popularity of attention, further induced the market for Codonopsis.
Codonopsis pilosula itself is at a historical low
After April 2014, the price of codonopsis pilosula fell to about 20 yuan. From October 2015 to November, the price rose to about 35 yuan, which continued until the first half of 2016. In the second half of 2016, the price rebounded to around 60 yuan. In the first half of 2017, the price of Codonopsis ginseng was 65 yuan up and down, and the price fell to 55-48 yuan in the second half of the year.
The price of new products produced in 2018 has been declining. In March 2019, the price of pharmaceutical products fell to about 25 yuan. The price rose by nearly 10 yuan in April 2019. In December 2020, the small-sized goods of the pharmaceutical factory are around 28 yuan, and the medium-sized goods are around 40 yuan.
Since the production of new products last year, the market of codonopsis pilosula can be said to have fallen to the bottom, and the price has officially entered the category of “low price”. Codonopsis pilosula is characterized by “flammable and explosive”. As a result, many people see that Codonopsis is at a low price, and the market cycle is almost time; funds began to intervene in a large amount of money, and the codonopsis pilosula market was also instantly ignited.
Angelica rose to pull codonopsis pilosula
Angelica and codonopsis pilosula belong to the authentic medicinal materials of Gansu. Angelica, codonopsis pilosula, and astragalus from Gansu Province have a long history of edible and medicinal use. In particular, as the province with the largest planting area ofangelica and dangshen in the country, the average planting area ofGansu Province in the past five years has reached 576,000 mu and 757,000 mu, respectively. The output accounted for 80% and 90% of the country’s total, and the annual output value exceeded 20 billion yuan. . The prices of Angelica and Dangshen have always been complementary.
Many people think that the emergence of codonopsis pilosula is driven by the enthusiasm of the angelica market; after all, it is a hot variety, and the market for Codonopsis pilosula is more“flammable and explosive”. After the market for angelica rose, Dangshen was still in a quiet period, so many buyers began to switch to the low-priced Dangshen, which created this wave of market.
Codonopsis pilosula has huge stocks
codonopsis pilosula was originally published in “Materia Medica Renewing”. It is derived from the dried roots of Codonopsis, Codonopsis pilosula, or Codonopsis radiata. The roots are thick and long, soft in texture, sweet in taste, and free of residue when chewing.
codonopsis pilosula is grown mainly in Dingxi and Longnan, Gansu Province. Dingxi City’s Codonopsis is mainly distributed in Weiyuan County, Lintao County, Longxi County, Min County and Zhang County; Longnan City is mainly distributed in the area ofDangchang and Wen County.
codonopsis pilosula has a growth cycle of 2-3 years, basically one year of seedlings and one year of transplanting. If the price is too low and the farmers are unwilling to dig, they can grow for 3-4 years and then dig. The harvest season is October-November. Generally, the quality of Dangshen for 3 years is better than that for Dangshen for 2 years.
In recent years, Tianshui, Zhangye, Gansu and other places have also taken the express train to plant codonopsis pilosula. The planting area ofCodonopsis pilosula in Gansu production areas has been increasing steadily, and the number of ginseng seedlings on the market has increased rapidly, indicating that the enthusiasm of pharmaceutical farmers is still high.
The production area ofcodonopsis pilosula in 2020 is still not small, and the weather is smooth. It is a year of high yield and good harvest. According to statistics, the output of Codonopsis in 2020 will be 50,164 tons. At the same time, the epidemic in the first half of 2020 affected the decline in sales of this product, and the inventory was backlogged.
This year, according to the production and planting situation of codonopsis pilosula, the production area has not been effectively reduced, and successive years of bumper harvests have made the inventory of Codonopsis very sufficient.
3. Market outlook
Generally speaking, some codonopsis pilosula producing areas in Gansu Province are affected by drought, and their growth is poor. There are dead seedlings and lack of seedlings. In addition, they are concerned about the popularity of the market. However, its own inventory is not low, and codonopsis pilosula may rise slightly in the short term.
