Price trend
According to the monitoring sample data of SunSirs, as of December 15th, the average enterprises price of melamine was 12,400.00 RMB/ton, which was a decrease of 7.46% compared with the price on last Wednesday (December 8) and a decrease of 23.14% compared with the price at the beginning of the month. In a three-month cycle, it fell by 27.06% year-on-year. The melamine companies offer prices were ranging from 9,500 RMB/ton to 14,000 RMB/ton.
Analysis review
The market price of melamine had fallen recently. Recently, the price of raw material urea had risen slightly, and the cost support was limited. The melamine market operating rate was more than 80%, but the demand side was still weak, and there was no obvious improvement. The market lacked favorable conditions, many manufacturers did not offer offers, the trading atmosphere was thin, and the focus of melamine negotiations had weakened.Upstream urea, the domestic urea market rose on December 14, which was 0.33% higher than the price on December 8. From the perspective of demand: agricultural demand is advancing slowly, and industrial demand is mainly wait-and-see. The outlook for the price of urea is uncertain, the advancement of fertilizer storage in winter is slow, and the production plan is postponed. The market price of melamine has fallen sharply, corporate inventories are under pressure, and the focus of market negotiations has weakened. From the perspective of supply, the suspension of production and maintenance of gas-head enterprises has been postponed, and it is expected to stop in mid-December. The current daily output of urea is about 140,000 tons. On the whole, urea cost support has weakened, downstream demand has improved, urea supply is insufficient, and the price of urea in the market outlook will mainly increase slightly.
Market outlook
The melamine analyst of SunSirs believes that the price of urea has risen slightly recently, the support from cost side is general, the supply side starts at a high level, the demand side support is weak, and the market confidence is insufficient. It is expected that in the short term, the melamine market may be weak, and more attention needs to be paid to market news guidance.
