The decline in crude oil is combined with the expectation that downstream polyester plants will increase production reductions, and the current price of PTA has fallen. As of August 9th, the average domestic PTA spot market price was 5315 yuan/ton, down 0.26% from the previous trading day and up 45.04% year-on-year. The main PTA futures 2201 closed at 5260, down 46, or 0.87%.
On the supply side, Fuhai created a 4.5 million ton/year PTA device, which began to heat up on August 4 and was expected to be released on August 6. The current industry operating rate has rebounded to more than 73%. The 3.3 million tons/year PTA plant of Yisheng New Materials started to restart on August 5, and the material has not yet been discharged on August 9. In addition, PTA’s main suppliers reduced their supply in August or postponed their delivery to September, and the lack of spot supply in the market has formed a certain degree of support for the market.
But crude oil fell. As of August 6, the settlement price of the main US WTI crude oil futures contract was US$68.28/barrel, a decrease of 0.81 US dollars or 1.20%, and the settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract was US$70.70/barrel, a decrease of US$0.59 or 0.83. %. The main reason is that the market is concerned about the negative impact of the delta mutation virus on the economic recovery, and the negative concern on the demand side has increased. At the same time, the polyester market in the lower reaches of Jiangsu and Zhejiang has been on the sidelines in the near future, with weak demand and price stability. Poor production and sales, some polyester factories have the intention to reduce production, and there are expectations of a decline in PTA demand.
Cost and demand-side support weakened, but there are not many PTA circulating stocks, which may restrain the price decline. It is expected that the short-term PTA market will fall within a narrow range. The market outlook still needs to pay attention to the restart of crude oil and its own devices.
