Futures: Soybean oil 2109 plummeted on Monday, to close at 8636 (down 342), a total of more than 29,000 positions lightened, and trading volume increased. The top 20 capital flows: Long positions are mainly dispersed to lighten their positions, and individual positions are reduced in a concentrated manner. The amount of positions held is greatly reduced, and the decline is greater than that of short positions. The concentration is greatly reduced; Concentration drops drastically. The minutes of the Fed’s meeting are expected to tighten macroeconomic policies, the sentiment of funds is greatly disturbed, and the domestic epidemic has broken out, and domestic commodities are under pressure as a whole. The three major oil and fat inventories rebounded. In the soybean oil market, the bulls gradually reduced their positions. The market was under pressure and plummeted. The short-term weakness may continue. To prevent a sharp downward rebound and wash the market, pay attention to the trend of the external market and changes in market expectations.
Strategic analysis: The current macro easing supports the low level of agricultural products, but policy adjustments affect market expectations. External disks, supply and demand, and market sentiment factors have a comprehensive impact on the market. In terms of supply, the port stocks of imported soybeans remained high in the third quarter. The recent abundant rainfall in the United States suppressed the price of US soybeans. In the July supply and demand report, the US soybeans have not adjusted in terms of planting area, yield, and inventory. On the demand side, the operating rate of oil plants continued to rise, the basis of the 09 contract continued to fall, and soybean oil inventories continued to increase. Soybean oil fell sharply in the short-term, and the big cycle tended to be high and gradually weakened. Operational reference: After a sharp rise and over rise, you can choose an empty order, and the market has fallen sharply to an important support area. You can choose an opportunity to place more orders.
Market strategy: Soybean Oil 2109 may continue to be weak in the short term, to prevent a sharp drop and rebound. Short-term operation: short 5% of the fund position, break through 8670 and close the position. If the market is under pressure in the 8750-8850 area, consider the light storage with a stop loss test. If the market is exploring the 8400-8500 area to stabilize, consider closing the position and reducing the short position. . Band operation: hold a short 5% position of funds. If the market is under pressure in the 8800-8950 area, consider a short-sale test, and if the market stabilizes in the 8200-8400 area, consider flattening and reducing the short position. Key short-term positions: 8550, 8750.
Market news: The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) released its July supply and demand report, and the global 2021/22 soybean year-end inventory is estimated to be raised to 94.49 million tons, and in June it is estimated to be 92.55 million tons; the global soybean production for 2021/22 is estimated to be 385.2 million tons, estimated to be 385.52 million tons in June; all aspects of US soybeans were the same as in June. USDA: As of the week of July 25, 2021, the excellent growth rate of soybeans in the United States was 58%, which was lower than the market estimate of 60%. It was 60% in the previous week and 72% in the same period last year. Brazil’s Ministry of Commerce and Trade: As of May 17, Brazil’s average daily soybean exports in May was 880,000 tons, an increase of 25% from the same period last year, but slowed down from the first week of May, when the average export volume on Sunday exceeded 900,000 tons. China Cereals and Oils Business Network: Domestic soybean oil stocks were 834,200 tons last weekend, a weekly increase of 47,500 tons, and 915,400 tons in the same period last year.
