On the 11th, aluminum prices continued to rise

On January 11, the average market price of domestic aluminum ingots in East China was 21,633.33 yuan/ton, and yesterday’s average market price was 21,240 yuan/ton, up 1.85%; compared with the beginning of the month (January 1), the average market price was 20,370 yuan/ton, up 6.20%.

At the peak in 2021 (October 19, 2021), the average market price of aluminum ingots is 24,240 yuan / ton, and the recent deviation from the peak has dropped by 10.75%. Starting from the recent recovery (December 13, 2021), the average market price of aluminum ingots is 18,693.33 yuan / ton, a recent increase of 15.73%.

The main reason for the recovery

Mainly due to the improvement of supply expectations, especially the European energy crisis, the natural gas factor has led to the rise in electricity prices, which has caused many aluminum plants in Europe to reduce production; in addition, the domestic supply-side reform has achieved remarkable results in the past few years, and the production capacity has basically formed a ceiling, in the past 1-2 years ” With the blessing of “Carbon Peak” and “Carbon Neutral”, the output is also affected to a certain extent. The recent social inventory data of aluminum ingots has been improving. As of the 10th, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 752,000 tons, a decrease of 24,000 tons from last Thursday; the increase in downstream inquiries and the superimposed effect of aluminum terminal consumption before the holiday have supported the recent domestic aluminum industry. The overall price is strong.

Market expected

As the Spring Festival is approaching, the cyclical accumulation effect before and after the holiday will test market tolerance. The recent trend of aluminum prices is improving, but it should not be too high. Strong shock is expected to run mainly.