A few days ago, the State Council issued the “Package of Policy Measures for Solidly Stabilizing the Economy”, which made detailed arrangements for increasing the import volume of potash fertilizer, coal production capacity, coal reserve capacity, crude oil and other resource reserve capacity. Under the guidance of a package of policy measures, China’s food and energy security will be more secure.
Potassium fertilizer is an important agricultural material. According to statistics from the General Administration of Customs of China, from January to April, China imported 2.9133 million tons of potassium chloride, a year-on-year decrease of 16.5%. Relevant data provided by Zhongyu Information shows that from January to May, the overall self-sufficiency rate of domestic potash fertilizers was about 52%, and half of them still depend on imports. The current domestic potash fertilizer port stock is only about 1.9 million tons, and it is showing a trend of continuous decline. . Therefore, in the current situation of the continuous shortage of domestic imported potash fertilizer, a package of policy measures proposed to actively do a good job in the import of potash fertilizer is undoubtedly a great benefit to the market.
It is understood that compared with previous years, the current domestic potash fertilizer supply is relatively tight, and the port supply is mostly concentrated in the hands of traders, which also leads to the overall high domestic potash fertilizer price. Zhongyu Information analyst Su Wenchao believes that the new policy is expected to promote the import of potash fertilizer. With the increase in imports and the gradual filling of potash fertilizer spot resources, the high market price of potash fertilizer will be alleviated.
China is a country with a very high dependence on foreign crude oil, and the foreign dependence in 2021 will be as high as 72.1%. The “Measures” emphasize the need to strengthen the reserve capacity of crude oil and other energy resources. In this regard, Xi Jiarui, senior crude oil analyst at Jinlianchuang, believes that improving the reserve capacity of crude oil will further improve my country’s energy security and ability to resist risks. When the international oil price fluctuates violently, China can release crude oil reserves to meet its own domestic needs. .
In recent years, China’s crude oil reserve capacity has been continuously improved. “In 2021, China’s theoretical crude oil inventory will increase by 5.79 million tons, which is equivalent to an increase of 4 days of net imports. So far, China’s total theoretical crude oil reserves (strategic oil storage + commercial oil storage) can cover 121 days. China’s crude oil resource reserve capacity will be further improved under the guidance of a package of policy measures, Xi Jiarui said.
Release high-quality coal production capacity and improve coal mine production capacity. The “Measures” also make detailed arrangements for further enhancement of coal supply capacity. As the supply-side reform continues and new advanced production capacity continues to replace outdated production capacity, China’s raw coal output has grown year by year. “As the state and local governments actively promote production increases and ensure supply, and high-quality coal production capacity continues to be released, domestic coal production will increase significantly in 2021, up 4.7% from 2020, setting a new high in coal production in recent years. In the first five months of this year, China’s cumulative production of raw coal 1.81 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 10.4%.” said Su Jia, an analyst at Zhongyu Information.
At the same time, China’s coal production capacity is also growing. According to Su Jia, since September last year, China has increased its coal production capacity by about 220 million tons and increased emergency production capacity by about 100 million tons. The coal production capacity is 300 million tons. With the implementation of a package of policy measures, China’s coal reserve capacity will be enhanced as a whole. (Reporter Liu Yelin)
