Price trend

According to the monitoring data of SunSirs, as of July 15, the average ex-factory price of n-butanol in Shandong was 14,733 RMB/ton. Compared with the price on July 11, the average price was lowered by 767 RMB/ton, a drop of 4.95% in four days; Compared with the price on July 1, the average price was raised by 100 RMB/ton, a half-month increase of 0.68%.

Analysis review

In early July, the domestic market for n-butanol continued to rise. As of the 9th, the average ex-factory price of n-butanol in Shandong rose to 15,533 RMB/ton. Compared with the average market price in early July, it rose by 900 RMB/ton. The overall increase in early July was 6.15%.

Afterwards, the market consolidated for two days at a high level, most downstream users resisted the current high raw material prices. Due to the high cost pressure of downstream products, the equipment was reduced to low-load operation, and mainstream downstream factories mainly digested raw material inventory. The trading atmosphere of new orders in the n-butanol market continued to weaken, and the transaction situation was average. Beginning from July 12, the Shandong region’s n-butanol factory began to lower the ex-factory price of n-butanol. By the 15th, the market price of n-butanol had fallen for four consecutive days, with a drop of 4.95% on the four days.

On the upstream side, entering July, propylene oxide continued its upward trend in late June, slowly rising. Starting from the 5th, downstream polyether orders increased steadily, the market went up, and the downstream just on-demand followed up steadily, and the market price went up without pressure. The current market supply is tight, downstream follow-up performance is positive, and the market continues to rise. As of July 14, the reference price of propylene oxide was 16,433.33 RMB/ton, an increase of 10.29% compared with the price on July 1 (14,900.00 RMB/ton).

Market outlook

After the domestic market price of n-butanol fell for four consecutive days in Shandong, it is heard that the current downstream procurement situation has improved, the transaction atmosphere has improved slightly, and the inventory levels of some factories have declined. After the pressure on the supply side is reduced, there is a certain support for the market outlook. Therefore, the n-butanol analyst of SunSirs believes that in the short term, the market for n-butanol in Shandong may rebound slightly.