1. Price trend

　　The Sanchi market remained stable after the market rose after the year. Currently, the price of Yunnan Sanchi 120 heads is 130-135 yuan/kg, a slight increase of 2.39% from the end of the previous month.

　　Bozhou market: Sanchi, the recent purchases by merchants are not large, and the price has not changed significantly. Currently, there are 120 Sanchis in the Bozhou market.

　　The price is around 130 yuan, countless heads of Sanchi are around 115 yuan, 60 heads of Sanchi are around 145 yuan, 80 heads of Sanchi are around 140 yuan, 40 heads of Sanchi are around 160 yuan, and 20 heads of Sanchi are around 260-265. yuan.

　　Yulin Market: Sanchi, rare merchants purchase in bulk, the market has ample inventory, and the market has not fluctuated in the near future. Now the price of 120 heads is around 130 yuan, 80 for 140 yuan, 60 for 150 yuan, and 40 for 160 yuan.

　　Wenshan, Yunnan Province: A small amount of fresh Sanchi has been listed in the past two days, the total is about 1 ton, the transaction price is 30-32 yuan/kg, the price is about 15%-18% higher than the same period last year, and the transaction is small in the feed type. Seven, winter seven and cut mouth mainly, the transaction price of feed type small seven is concentrated at 115-125 yuan/kg, 2020 version of the pharmacopoeia standard clean goods feed type small seven is 128 yuan/kg, and the transaction price of winter seven is 138-140 yuan/kg. Kilogram, 180-186 yuan/kg for three-year cutting.

　　2. Analysis of influencing factors

　　Sanchi

　　The traditional Chinese medicine is the dry root and rhizome of the Araliaceae plant Sanchi Panax notoginseng (Burk.) F.H. Chen. Dig and wash the flowers before blooming in autumn, separate the main roots, branch roots and rhizomes, and dry them. Branch roots are commonly called “ribs” and rhizomes are commonly called “cut mouths”. Mainly produced in Wenshan Prefecture, Yunnan, hence the name Wenshan Sanchi, also known as Wenzhou Sanchi.

　　Pian Zai Huang

　　Recently, some netizens found in a local pharmacy that the price of one Pian Zai Huang was fired up to 700-3000 yuan; the price on the official website earlier was 590 yuan/tablet. Not only that, but Pian Zai Huang now has restrictions on purchases and the need to cut the tablets to buy two tablets.

　　Statistics show that from 2004 to 2020, the price of Pian Zai Huang lozenges was raised 19 times. From 2004 to 2020, the retail price of Pian Zai Huang rose from 325 yuan/tablet to 590 yuan/tablet, an increase of 81.54%. From the ex-factory price point of view, the price of Pian Zai Huang tablets has been increased 10 times since 2004, from 125 yuan/tablet in 2004 to 390 yuan/tablet at the beginning of January 2020. The price increase is as high as 212%.

　　Pian Zai Huang is a traditional Chinese medicine in Zhangzhou, Fujian. It is one of the only four species under national first-level protection for more than 20 years since China promulgated the “Regulations on the Protection of Chinese Medicine Varieties” in 1992. Behind the “high” price, its cost mainly comes from raw materials. According to the data announced by the company, the cost of direct materials will account for 87.57% of the total cost in 2020; the second is direct labor, which accounts for 5.84%; and the manufacturing cost, which accounts for 6.59%.

　　Among them, the main ingredients of Pian Zai Huang are precious and rare medicinal materials such as bezoar, musk, snake gall bladder, Tian Qi, etc., which are mainly used for reducing swelling and pain, promoting blood circulation and removing blood stasis, clearing heat and detoxification. Among them, the natural musk content is 3%, the natural bezoar content is 5%, the snake gall content is 7%, and the Sanchi content is 85%.

　　Sanchi has high accumulated inventory

　　After the price soaring in the past few years, there has been a fission-style blindly following the trend of planting by companies, individuals and other growers. The ultra-high production in 2015 caused a large inventory backlog, and 2016-2019 is a period of inventory digestion. Even if there is a period of insufficient production and demand, inventory can completely cover the gap between supply and demand. By 2019, Sanchi’s new production volume and inventory will usher in another peak period, with an overall supply scale of more than 55,000 tons, which is sufficient for the market to digest for more than two years.

　　It is estimated that the total social inventory of Sanchi will significantly exceed the demand within 3 years. The result of blindly following the trend of planting has caused severe oversupply, which is one of the reasons why Sanchi’s prices have fallen sharply in recent years.

　　Sanchi’s demand side has declined significantly

　　In daily life, many hypertensive patients will consume “Sanchi” to control their blood pressure, which is very good. Sanchi is also known as Tian Qi, and Li Shizhen, a famous medical scientist in the Ming Dynasty, called it “Golden Buhuan”. Modern studies have found that Sanchi has the ability to expand blood vessels, lower blood pressure, improve microcirculation, increase blood flow, prevent and treat ischemia, hypoxia, etc. of the heart and brain tissues. It is very good for the treatment and prevention of hypertension and its cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases. The drug has a bright future.

　　The medical insurance catalog restricts the 26 types of traditional Chinese medicine injections commonly used at the grassroots level — limited to use by medical institutions of secondary level and above. Among them, Sanchi saponin injections (Xueshuantong injection and Xuesaitong injection, blood clots for injection) are currently the most consumed Tong, Xueshuantong for injection) are on the restricted list. As a result, the amount of Sanchi used by some pharmaceutical companies has decreased by 20-50%.

　　In terms of demanding companies, they participate in Sanchi’s stockpiling of raw materials, and use them as raw material reserves if they do not increase prices. If prices increase, they can release goods to the market for profit. This also resulted in later companies increasing their efforts to invest in Sanchi bases and taking advantage of a large amount of inventory, which became the key force influencing Sanchi’s market. Every time the Sanchi market rises and falls, there is a shadow of capital intervention. At the beginning of the month, Sanchi bottomed out and rebounded due to the power of capital.

　　The new version of the Pharmacopoeia on pesticide residues

　　The 2020 edition of the Chinese Pharmacopoeia clearly stated that in terms of safety: effective control of the impact of exogenous pollutants on the safety of traditional Chinese medicine. The establishment of Sanchi heavy metal and pesticide residue limit standards, the imminent implementation of the standard will directly cause pharmaceutical companies to dare not purchase large quantities.

　　With the implementation of the new pharmacopoeia, pesticide residues and heavy metals have become the lifeblood of Sanchi’s quality. Although the pharmacopoeia only proposes 26 banned pesticide testing requirements, core issues such as excessive use of swelling agents in many production areas have not yet been paid attention to and resolved, thus becoming the future Major hidden dangers of Sanchi quality.

　　3. Market forecast

　　Generally speaking, Pian Zai Huang has been selling hot recently, and the price has skyrocketed. Sanchi is its main raw material, and the price of Sanchi has risen slightly. However, the social inventory of Sanchi is relatively high, and the demand side has declined significantly. Analyses believe that the price of Sanchi may not rise sharply.