In September, the raw material end was strongly supported, and the polyamide price was running at a high level. As of September 30, the price of polyamide DTY (superior product; 70D/24F) in Jiangsu area was 20,820 yuan/ton, an increase of 820 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month. 4.1%; polyamide POY (superior product; 86D/24F) quoted at 18325 yuan/ton, an increase of 700 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month, an increase of 3.97%; polyamide FDY (superior product: 40D/12F) price was reported at 22,166 yuan/ton, Compared with the beginning of the month, the price increased by 1566 yuan/ton, an increase of 7.6%.
From the perspective of price trends, since September, the domestic polyamide fabric market has been operating at a high level, and the overall operation is relatively stable, with a steady rise. The demand of domestic polyamide spinning enterprises has recovered slightly, and the stocking operation has been carried out in advance, and the transaction has improved, which is conducive to reducing the inventory of polyamide chips. Following the report on September 14th, Sinopec’s high-end caprolactam quotation increased by 500 to 16,000 yuan/ton this week. On September 15th, polyamide manufacturers increased their prices. The quotations generally rose by 800-1,000 yuan/ton, especially for polyamide FDY. Some manufacturers Increased by 1,500 yuan/ton. In late September, the overall operation was relatively stable, with a steady increase.
Under the influence of the dual control policy, the polyamide industry is not immune, and the operating rate of polyamide-related companies will be restricted to a certain extent. Polyamide manufacturers in Jiangsu stopped production for about 10 days, and inventories were further reduced.
Strong support for upstream raw materials
The price of domestic polyamide rose in September, mainly affected by upstream raw materials. PA6 is the main raw material of polyamide civilian yarn, and entering September, PA6 was strongly pushed up by the price of the upstream raw material caprolactam. As of September 29, the mainstream offer price of 2.75-2.85 for the sample companies was around 17,333.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 11.59% from the average price level at the beginning of the month, an increase of 66.13% year-on-year.
Judging from the price increase and decrease of polyamide and upstream raw materials in recent months, caprolactam has started a strong upward trend since mid-August. The spot market price has risen from 14,200 yuan/ton to 15,250 yuan/ton in just 3 weeks, an increase of about 7.4% . In September, caprolactam supported the cost of PA6 strongly, and the spot price of PA6 continued to rise with the raw material. Currently in the “Golden Nine” traditional peak season, terminal demand is heavy, and there is a centralized replenishment market in the month. The fundamentals of the market are stable, and it is expected that the spot price of PA6 may remain stable in the short term.
The supply of cyclohexanone, the upstream raw material of polyamide, is tight, and the market continues to rise. In September, the domestic cyclohexanone market rose sharply. According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the average domestic market price of cyclohexanone at the beginning of the month was 10,720 yuan/ton, and the average domestic market price of cyclohexanone at the end of the month was 12,760 yuan/ton, an increase of 19.03% during the month and a year-on-year increase of 90.86%.
At the beginning of the month, the cyclohexanone market continued to move upwards, pure benzene rose steadily, and cost support was relatively stable. Downstream caprolactam equipment was intensively repaired, and the spot supply in the market was tight. Some chemical fiber factories actively purchased. In the middle of the month, the cyclohexanone market rose broadly, and the pure benzene listing was raised twice by a total of 200 yuan/ton to 7850 yuan/ton, and the cost was strongly supported. The downstream caprolactam is shut down for maintenance and the supply is tight, and the demand for cyclohexanone is increasing. In the second half of the month, the cyclohexanone market was operating stably, and the pure benzene listing was lowered by a total of 400 yuan/ton to 8,200 yuan/ton for two times, and the cost side lacked support. However, the supply of downstream caprolactam is tight. During the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holiday, some chemical fiber factories actively stock up and purchase, which has formed a good demand support for the cyclohexanone market. In addition, there are many parking lots of cyclohexanone, and the volume of goods continues to be in short supply. The supply is in short supply, and cyclohexanone is running at a high price.
Downstream market demand
On the demand side, the traditional peak season is coming, and downstream market demand is slightly higher. As usual, the market trading atmosphere will rebound before the National Day. After the National Day, with the further release of downstream orders, there are too many uncertainties in the market this year. Market participants still need to be cautious about whether the wave market is hoarding goods to rise or the peak season is coming.
Outlook
The current polyamide market is affected by the price of raw materials, and the price of polyamide is running at a high level. Under the influence of the curtailment policy, the polyamide industry has not been spared, and the operating rate of polyamide-related companies will be restricted to a certain extent. It is expected that in the short term, the polyamide market will be stimulated by traditional peak season signals and the cost side will continue to be promoted. Under the influence of the curtailment policy, domestic polyamide prices will continue to run at a high level, and there are still expectations of rising.
