Affected by the drought this month, Dangshen suddenly increased after experiencing low prices. The current price of codonopsis pilosula production area is between 40-43 yuan/kg, a 16.48% increase compared with the end of the previous month.

　　The market for codonopsis pilosula in the last two years is particularly extraordinary. Since the production of new products last year, the market of codonopsis pilosula has fallen to the bottom, and the price has officially entered the category of “low price”; as we all know, the characteristics of the market of codonopsis pilosula are “flammable and explosive”. As a result, many people see that Dangshen is at a low price, and the market cycle is almost time; when funds begin to intervene in a large amount of money, the market for Dangshen is also instantly ignited. Recently, the production area was hit by a drought again, and there was another buying boom, and the market continued to rise!

　　Bozhou market: Codonopsis pilosula recently went to the production area to purchase more and more merchants, the market is relatively hot, the increase is large, market operators have increased their reluctance to sell, and they have raised their asking prices. Strips are 55 yuan, and slices that pass a 0.3 sieve are around 60 yuan.

　　Anguo Market: Recently, many merchants have gone to the production area to buy goods. The supply of goods has been sold smoothly. The market performance is hot. The market performance is not as good as the production area. However, the market has risen accordingly. , The price of Xiaotongzhuangzui is around 55 yuan.

　　Yulin Market: codonopsis pilosula, the market is well digested, and the cost of incoming goods from the production area has risen, leading to rising prices. The current price of small strips is between 40-42 yuan, middle strips are 50-55 yuan, and large strips are around 90 yuan.

　　Minxian County, Gansu Province: Codonopsis pilosula has recently been paying more attention to the popularity, and the number of merchants looking for goods has increased, and the purchase and sale of the goods have been smooth. Affected by this, the price has risen compared with the previous period. The current price of the pharmaceutical factory is about 38 yuan, and its merchants are optimistic about the future. .

　　2. Analysis of influencing factors

　　Codonopsis pilosula production area suffers from drought

　　At present, some Codonopsis pilosula producing areas in Dingxi City, Gansu Province are affected by drought, and their growth is poor, and there are dead seedlings and lack of seedlings. However, the drought can be said to be an opportunity for the outbreak of the Dangshen market. The prerequisite for each major market situation is basically inseparable from drought. Only the uncertain natural factors such as drought are more likely to cause changes in the market for Codonopsis. After all, no one can predict the drastic reduction in production caused by drought.

　　The low prices in 2014 severely dampened the enthusiasm of codonopsis growers. The planting area plummeted. In addition to the severe drought in 2015, the production of codonopsis pilosula was reduced in 2015, and the market stabilized and stabilized, showing an upward trend.

　　In 2016, due to the continued reduction of seeds last year and the drought, the emergence rate of codonopsis pilosula was not high, the new output fell, the inventory was effectively digested, and the market rose.

　　In 2016, codonopsis pilosula was again driven by the positive news of drought. The high price of codonopsis pilosula continued, which made the enthusiasm of medical farmers to raise seedlings higher in 2017. In 2018, the enthusiasm of medical farmers in planting was not diminished, and the new price of production continued to decline.

　　The production area in 2020 is still not small. It is a year of bumper harvest for Codonopsis. In addition, in the first half of 2020, the epidemic has affected the sales of this product and the inventory has been backlogged, causing the market for Codonopsis to continue to weaken.

　　Gansu, as the main producing area, has always had the characteristics of “nine droughts in ten years”. This year, some areas of Gansu once again suffered from drought, coupled with the excessive popularity of attention, further induced the market for Codonopsis.

　　Codonopsis pilosula itself is at a historical low

　　After April 2014, the price of codonopsis pilosula fell to about 20 yuan. From October 2015 to November, the price rose to about 35 yuan, which continued until the first half of 2016. In the second half of 2016, the price rebounded to around 60 yuan. In the first half of 2017, the price of Codonopsis ginseng was 65 yuan up and down, and the price fell to 55-48 yuan in the second half of the year.

　　The price of new products produced in 2018 has been declining. In March 2019, the price of pharmaceutical products fell to about 25 yuan. The price rose by nearly 10 yuan in April 2019. In December 2020, the small-sized goods of the pharmaceutical factory are around 28 yuan, and the medium-sized goods are around 40 yuan.

　　Since the production of new products last year, the market of codonopsis pilosula can be said to have fallen to the bottom, and the price has officially entered the category of “low price”. Codonopsis pilosula is characterized by “flammable and explosive”. As a result, many people see that Codonopsis is at a low price, and the market cycle is almost time; funds began to intervene in a large amount of money, and the codonopsis pilosula market was also instantly ignited.

　　Angelica rose to pull codonopsis pilosula

　　Angelica and codonopsis pilosula belong to the authentic medicinal materials of Gansu. Angelica, codonopsis pilosula, and astragalus from Gansu Province have a long history of edible and medicinal use. In particular, as the province with the largest planting area of​​angelica and dangshen in the country, the average planting area of​​Gansu Province in the past five years has reached 576,000 mu and 757,000 mu, respectively. The output accounted for 80% and 90% of the country’s total, and the annual output value exceeded 20 billion yuan. . The prices of Angelica and Dangshen have always been complementary.

　　Many people think that the emergence of codonopsis pilosula is driven by the enthusiasm of the angelica market; after all, it is a hot variety, and the market for Codonopsis pilosula is more“flammable and explosive”. After the market for angelica rose, Dangshen was still in a quiet period, so many buyers began to switch to the low-priced Dangshen, which created this wave of market.

　　Codonopsis pilosula has huge stocks

　　codonopsis pilosula was originally published in “Materia Medica Renewing”. It is derived from the dried roots of Codonopsis, Codonopsis pilosula, or Codonopsis radiata. The roots are thick and long, soft in texture, sweet in taste, and free of residue when chewing.

　　codonopsis pilosula is grown mainly in Dingxi and Longnan, Gansu Province. Dingxi City’s Codonopsis is mainly distributed in Weiyuan County, Lintao County, Longxi County, Min County and Zhang County; Longnan City is mainly distributed in the area of​​Dangchang and Wen County.

　　codonopsis pilosula has a growth cycle of 2-3 years, basically one year of seedlings and one year of transplanting. If the price is too low and the farmers are unwilling to dig, they can grow for 3-4 years and then dig. The harvest season is October-November. Generally, the quality of Dangshen for 3 years is better than that for Dangshen for 2 years.

　　In recent years, Tianshui, Zhangye, Gansu and other places have also taken the express train to plant codonopsis pilosula. The planting area of​​Codonopsis pilosula in Gansu production areas has been increasing steadily, and the number of ginseng seedlings on the market has increased rapidly, indicating that the enthusiasm of pharmaceutical farmers is still high.

　　The production area of​​codonopsis pilosula in 2020 is still not small, and the weather is smooth. It is a year of high yield and good harvest. According to statistics, the output of Codonopsis in 2020 will be 50,164 tons. At the same time, the epidemic in the first half of 2020 affected the decline in sales of this product, and the inventory was backlogged.

　　This year, according to the production and planting situation of codonopsis pilosula, the production area has not been effectively reduced, and successive years of bumper harvests have made the inventory of Codonopsis very sufficient.

　　3. Market outlook

　　Generally speaking, some codonopsis pilosula producing areas in Gansu Province are affected by drought, and their growth is poor. There are dead seedlings and lack of seedlings. In addition, they are concerned about the popularity of the market. However, its own inventory is not low, and codonopsis pilosula may rise slightly in the short term.

　　On August 17, the spot price of silicomanganese was stable, and the price in the main factory area in Ningxia was between 7,550-7,650 RMB/ton.

　　Analysis review

　　Now local production restrictions have become a normal trend. It is reported that the power curtailment situation in Inner Mongolia has eased, and the most severe month-on-month production reduction situation may pass, and the production and demand of silicomanganese will both rebound.

　　On the upstream side, the actual transaction of ore prices is sluggish, and the willingness of factories to purchase replenishment is not strong.

　　Market outlook

　　The short-term silicomanganese spot market may operate smoothly.

　　The Sulfur Commodity Index on August 17 was 96.39, an increase of 3.84 points from previous day, a decrease of 7.17% from the cycle highest point of 103.84 points (2011-11-02), and an increase of 273.75% from the lowest point of 25.79 points on February 24, 2020. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to present)

　　According to the price monitoring of SunSirs, sulfur prices in East China rose slightly on the 17th. The average sulfur production price was 1,756.67 RMB/ton, an increase of 4.15% from the previous working day.

　　Analysis review

　　Refineries in various regions raised their overall quotations based on their own shipments, and solid and liquid sulfur increased by 30-80 RMB/ton simultaneously.

　　The supply of goods in the port was difficult to find, and the holders were reluctant to sell their products. The downstream market was on the sidelines. The domestic refineries were operating normally. Traders mainly purchased on demand. The external prices were firm and the insiders had a better mentality.

　　Market outlook

　　At present, the domestic sulfur market is running at a high level. The downstream phosphate fertilizer market, domestic demand and export orders are improving, and the domestic spot supply is tight. The market is mainly up, which has better support for sulfur. The market players have a better mentality, and the market outlook for the sulfur market will continue to be strong, with specific attention to market transactions.

　　The high volumes, which some sources estimate could exceed 500,000 mt, are expected to last through the end of 2021, driven by the increase in Iran’s LPG production and demand, sources said. Initial hopes of easing sanctions after Joe Biden became the US president have dimmed as negotiations have stalled somewhat following the election of conservative President Ebrahim Raisi in Iran.A Chinese source said more Iranian LPG was shipped into China this year, which could be due to the grade’s competitive price.

　　Iranian cargoes were heard sold at discounts deeper than $20/mt versus other Middle Eastern cargoes, which attracted buying interest, the source said. Others said the discounts were as steep as $30/mt. The previous round of Western sanctions in 2012 saw Chinese buyers buying Iranian cargoes at hefty $40-$50/mt discounts.

　　According to data intelligence company Kpler, China was the largest buyer of Iranian LPG in June at 464,000 mt, or 95% of its total exports, with small amounts shipped to Pakistan and Bangladesh.

　　A trade source said the three countries are the only lifters of Iranian LPG.

　　Slow progress in nuclear talksProgress on the talks aimed at reviving the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action and the lifting of sanctions on Iranian oil was complicated. Platts reported on Aug. 13 that the US Treasury Department leveled new sanctions against an Omani oil trader and a Liberian-flagged crude tanker accused of facilitating Iranian oil exports.

　　”It is a bit difficult to advise the exact exported quantity (of LPG), as some quantities are kept on some vessels used as floating storage and transshipments for a while in the UAE, Oman and Straits; and small shipments, which is exported to nearby countries,” a trade source said.

　　”It is fluctuating between 450,000-530,000 mt/month. Hopefully with the new US government, the imposed limitation might be eased and (Iran) can increase the export volume by the coming of more vessels on the Iran route.”

　　Iran’s LPG exports come from mainly from two sectors — petrochemical plants and gas refineries.

　　LPG from petrochemical plants is produced by Bandar Imam Petrochemical Co. in Khuzestan province, which produces 1 million mt/year of LPG; Petrochemical Commercial Co. in Assaluyeh, which produces 1.5 million mt/year, and Kharg Petrochemical Co, which produces 200,000 mt/year.

　　Gas refineries, mainly located in South Pars phases/Assaluyeh, have export quantities of about 3 million mt.

　　Production from gas refineries could be much higher if not for the current political situation, which limited the number of vessels that can be used for export, the source added.

　　According to the trade source, the easing of sanctions will not move fast. “And I believe it will take a minimum of six to eight months, optimistically.”

　　Industry sources had said, assuming the US completely removes sanctions, Iran could export at least 3.73 million mt/year of LPG and 33 vessels will be needed for transportation.

　　Before these limitations, Iran’s monthly LPG exports peaked at around 568,000 mt in August 2018, driving shipments in that year to 5.2 million mt, shipping and trade data showed, the highest since the previous western sanctions to its nuclear program were lifted in January 2016.

　　In one month, peak export volumes can reach 13 Very Large Gas Carriers, sources said.

　　China imported 4.94 million mt of Iranian LPG in 2019, 3.85 million mt in 2020, and 1.965 million mt over January to May 2021, industry data showed. Sources said Iranian exports to China are via ship-to-ship operations and are not reflected in official data.

　　In 2018, term customers of Iranian LPG had included Indonesia and Taiwan, either directly, or via trading firms, sources said.

　　Between 2018 and 2020, Iran added 3.2 million mt of LPG production capacity mainly from the South Pars gas field and by this September, another 2.2 million mt of production capacity is expected to come online, sources said.

　　Chinese LPG demand is rising due to the start up of new propane dehydrogenation plants. Fujian Meide and Oriental Energy’s Ningbo facility started up new plants in H1 2021, while Shandong Huifeng Haiyi Petrochemical’s plant is in the pipeline. These facilities would add 1.58 million mt/year of propane processing capacity.

　　Jinneng Science and Technology is due to start up a PDH plant with propane processing capacity of 1.08 million mt/year at Qingdao in Shandong province in the near term, while Henan Nanpu Technology is scheduled to start a PDH plant by year-end that will require almost 200,000 mt/year of propane feedstock at full capacity, market sources said.

　　Currently, China has 12 PDH plants with a combined propylene production capacity of 7.97 million mt, using up to 9.56 million mt/year of feedstock propane, Platts’ calculations showed.

　　Gleason agreed with contentions by lead plaintiff Sovereign Inupiat for a Living Arctic and five other plaintiffs that key parts of a lengthy federal Environmental Impact Statement for Willow were legally defective. The judge, however, upheld defendants BLM and ConocoPhillips on several other points.Gleason found the analysis of greenhouse gas emissions to be inadequate along with mitigation measures for impacts on polar bears.

　　The judge also found that BLM had done an inadequate analysis of alternatives to plans for gravel roads and drilling pads in sensitive areas.

　　”The permits and approval granted to ConocoPhillips disregarded local health concerns, required public process and the law, and today’s ruling corrects that,” said Bridget Psarianos, a staff attorney with Trustees for Alaska, the environment law firm that represented the plaintiff group.

　　ConocoPhillips spokeswoman Rebecca Boys was cautious in her assessment. “We will review the decision and evaluate the options available regarding this project,” she said.

　　The court decision will require the agency and company to redo parts of the environmental analysis for the project, which may require a Supplemental Environmental Impact Statement.

　　ConocoPhillips was hoping to make a construction decision on Willow by the end of this year, but a new environmental review and SEIS could delay that for a year to two, assuming the project is ultimately upheld by the courts.

　　A delay will have effects on anticipated new oil for the Trans-Alaska Pipeline System, which is running at less than one fourth of its original capacity.

　　If Willow could remain on schedule, it could be in production in 2025 or 2026 with peak production estimated at 150,000 b/d. If a new SEIS is done, Willow production could happen in 2027 or 2028, or later.

　　This will affect future TAPS oil volumes, which are also impacted by declining production in existing North Slope fields. It will minimally affect State of Alaska revenues because the state’s share of federal royalties from Willow go to a special fund to support Inupiat villages on the North Slope.

　　While state production taxes do apply on federal lands, the near-term tax payments are reduced by ConocoPhillips’ ability to apply expenses from its fields elsewhere on the slope under the state’s net-profits type tax.

　　The regional municipality, the North Slope Borough, will be adversely affected by the delay in development of a new industrial property tax base.

　　Construction of gravel roads and drill pads for Willow had been planned for the winter/spring of 2021 but when the lawsuits were filed, Gleason ordered an injunction halting the work until decisions were made on the overall case, which has now happened.

　　ConocoPhillips has, however, continued offsite engineering work on the project. Willow’s initial phase is estimated to cost about $3 billion but the ultimate build-out of the project will require a total of about $6 billion, the company has said.